Premier League predictions: Away wins for Arsenal, Man Utd and Liverpool on Sunday

Our tipster Jones Knows assesses Sunday’s Premier League action and wants to back Arsenal, Man Utd and Liverpool.

Everton vs Leicester, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Now that Leicester have fixed their defensive issues, the Foxes could make a sustained charge against the top half of the Premier League based on their attacking quality. That greater certainty – conceding just three goals in their last six games – allows the likes of James Maddison and Harvey Barnes to win football matches for their team. Yes, Leicester remain in the relegation zone but they are just five points off Liverpool in ninth place after taking 10 points from their last six games.

Everton have improved since last season but there is still a sense of overachieving on their underlying numbers when it comes to their defence. Everton have the fourth highest expected goals against this season (21.2) but have the fourth best actual defensive record (12 conceded). It is an unsustainable measure.

I’m not sure you can allow the quality of Leicester’s forward line to be so likely to create chances with impunity. So, it’s time to roll out a base bet at a price that remains chunky, with Barnes to score in a Leicester win at 7/1 with Sky Bet. And his 10/1 first goalscorer price should also be fully respected.

No Leicester player has had more touches in the opposition box (46) than Barnes this season. The game plan is clear from Brendan Rodgers to get his winger into dangerous positions in the box, and it is reaping the rewards with Barnes scoring three in his last six games, aided by wonderful chemistry with Maddison and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.

GRADE POINTS: 1-2 | JONES CAN BEST BET: Harvey Barnes scores in Leicester win (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Chelsea vs Arsenal, Sunday 12pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Chelsea are still an overachieving team according to the underlying numbers under Graham Potter, particularly in attack.

In the six Premier League games he has overseen, Chelsea have averaged an expected goal without penalty of 1.06 per 90 – a disappointing return for a team priced as a top-four team and having enjoyed a soft rise of matches against the likes of Wolves, Aston Villa and Brentford. By comparison, Arsenal are operating at 1.82 expected goals without penalties per-90 this season.

That Chelsea average dropped to 0.28 when they faced Manchester United – a genuine top-six ranked team – where Jorginho’s penalty came out of nowhere during a very inactive attacking performance. There have been moments of sharp play under Potter, who I’m sure will get it right as he works out all the pieces of this Chelsea machine. But without the natural width and creativity of Reece James and the industry of N’Golo Kante, Chelsea look a little lost in this transfer window.

But there are concerns about Arsenal’s attack when playing away from home as well. There has been a massive downward trajectory in their attacking numbers over their last four road trips in all competitions. They have scored just three goals and struggled for intensity against Southampton and Leeds without the added bonus of a pumped-up home crowd.

The direct betting has this an equal meeting with 13/8 available with Sky Bet on both teams. I would avoid that angle, although for the prediction I would side with Arsenal. My interest is under 2.5 goal line at 10/11 with Sky Bet in what could be a game where defense rules everything.

DECISION POINT: 0-1 | JONES CAN BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet – bet here!)

Aston Villa vs Manchester United, Sunday 2pm

This is how Unai Emery would like it to be in his first game. His Aston Villa side are underdogs and will have a raucous home after roaring them on, boosted by the exciting appointment. A quick look at the total goal returns in his first competitive game in charge of a new team (Villarreal, Arsenal, PSG, Sevilla, Spartak Moscow, Valencia, Almeria and Lorca CF) shows that he can quickly set about setting up a team with good defensive structure. In the eight games, there was an average of just 1.87 total goals.

I fully expect this meeting to follow the low scoring average. Manchester United is a side that goes places but it’s a style built on solidity and taking control of games at key moments. The attacking chemistry is not quite at the levels that Erik ten Hag requires yet and it lends itself to some low scoring games. All of their last four Premier League games have gone under the 2.5 goal line and with perhaps some heavy legs after their clash with Real Sociedad on Thursday, a goal could be enough to take this one.

DECISION POINT: 0-1 | JONES CAN BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet – bet here!)

Southampton vs Newcastle, Sunday 14:00, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Regular readers of this column (hi mum) will be aware of the pain that shoots through my body when James Ward-Prowse makes the England team is mentioned. His omission from the Euro 2020 squad signaled a sickening end to two years of backing him at high prices – some as big as 16/1 – to make the final squad.

There could be some payback on the way if Callum Wilson can keep scoring. He was part of my ante-post portfolio at the start of the season at prices from 11/1 down to 6/1 to make the WC squad. All looked lost when his body failed him after a bright start, but his leading role in this wonderfully robust Newcastle side after regaining fitness has catapulted him back into England contention. He is now 11/10. Don’t break my heart again, Gareth.

Wilson is a streaky striker when he’s in the mood, and with his motivation levels soaring he figures as the most likely first goalscorer at St Mary’s although his 7/2 price with Sky Bet is about right. In their last 10 Premier League games, just three Premier League goals have been scored by Southampton’s attackers, so the reliability of Wilson’s finishing, despite the low price, stands out when assessing that market.

POS END MONEY: 0-2

West Ham v Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm

Patrick Vieira is a manager who for some reason struggles to inspire his teams away from home. Since taking over last season, Palace have posted relegation stats when it comes to their attacking numbers and overall record. He has won just four of his 24 away games – one of which was at Manchester City, incredible. In those matches, their overall expected goal return of 23.15 is the lowest total posted by any Premier League team that has not been promoted or relegated in that period.

Vieira had similar problems scoring away from home at Nice, with his side averaging just 0.9 goals per 90 minutes in their 37 games managing the French side away from home. Perhaps his possession-based, controlled style is difficult to implement when opposing teams play with more belief at home. Having seen them play at Leicester and Everton, I’m all for Palace this weekend against an improved West Ham side who have won nine of their last 13 games in all competitions, including their last three at home in the Premier League. The 10/11 with Sky Bet on a Hammers win should land.

FINAL SCORE: 2-0

Tottenham vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Judging by the quality of forwards missing from both teams, added to the relentless fixture list since October 1, it is easy to predict that this clash will not be the best version of itself. Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota are out for Liverpool while Heung-Min Son, Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski are massive absentees for Spurs as their ability to play quickly in transition is now severely affected.

Spurs have relied on second-half rallies and goals from set-pieces to escape some sticky situations but Liverpool are a very difficult team to score against from such scenarios – they and West Ham are the only two teams yet to concede from a corner this season. I can see Spurs struggling to create many openings from open play, especially without the speed and directness of Son who scored in both games against Liverpool last season.

However, Liverpool don’t exactly fill me with confidence in the goal department either away from home against a likely Tottenham low block. Jurgen Klopp spoke after the Napoli win about “having to fight through and then the real football that we can play can come back” which screams to me that he will play with more certainty than usual to keep Alisson’s goals protected. The markets are predicting a bit of a goal frenzy, with the game more likely to go over 2.5 goals than under. I do not agree. Back a deal with low scores.

DECISION POINT: 0-1 | JONES CAN BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (11/10 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)