‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Eyeing World Domination With $365M Opening – Box Office

Despite the presence of New Lines Adam replied and Universal’s franchise title Halloween ends at the October box office, the drought we’ve endured since the second picture in August with US/Canada weekend box office sales averaging $58 million has been stinging to say the least.

But here comes Disney Marvel Studios Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to put the world back on its feet.

Expect writer-director Ryan Coogler’s sequel to the triple Oscar-winning hit to gross $1.3 billion worldwide between $175M–$185M stateside in 4,300 theaters and another $180M+ abroad for a worldwide start between 355 million USD to 365 million USD. That would make it the third-largest debut of the pandemic after Spider-Man: No Way Home ($568 million) and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($429 million).

That goes a long way to underscoring the notion that movie viewing isn’t dead, it’s just about product.

That said, expect it Wakanda forever to rule for a while. It wouldn’t be surprising if it even beats Disney’s own animated title Strange world during the Thanksgiving weekend. It’s the spiritual of a movie, and pretty much what we saw with F7 and how that title honored its late star Paul Walker, expect a great experience to come into force here with Wakanda forever in his profound homage to late Black Panther star Chadwick Boseman.

There is a very good chance Wakanda forever may reign well into December, when Disney emerges with 20th Century Studios’ long-winded sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, on December 16.

RELATED: Trailer for ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’: Return To Pandora With A Mighty Heartbeat

Yes, there is a dearth of big tentpole products in the fourth quarter due to many being stuck in the post-production purgatory of the pandemic, but many major studios are making conscious decisions not to book any expensive counter-programming during the low summer season. Based on what they learned last Christmas, the presence of a big tentpole like Sony/Marvels Spider-Man: No Way Home was not a situation where high tide rose all boats; in fact, the only other film to gross more than $100 million before Spidey$814.1 million was Universal/Illuminations sing 2,with $162.7 million in the state. Warner Bros. moved DC’s Shazam: Fury of the Gods outside of Christmas so it can hit Imax screens on March 17 next year.

With the first one Wakanda forever trailer takes off like a rocket ship from the sequel’s star-studded San Diego Comic-Con panel back in July, the selling point for Wakanda forever has been which of the women in T’Challa’s court takes over the mask. But the film is so much more than that – and critics realize this at 91% fresh right now on Rotten Tomatoes. An added bonus for turnstiles is that a majority of schools are closed on Fridays for Veterans Day. Of course, Disney is in control of all premium ticket prices including 400 Imax, 900 premium large format screens, 2,800 3D screens, as well as ScreenX and D-Box. The first Black Panther opened to $202 million in the US/Canada over the weekend of February 16-18, 2018 and, thanks to Presidents Day, went on to a four-day run of $242.1 million.

RELATED: ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Advance Ticket Sales At $45M, 20% Behind ‘Doctor Strange 2’

Among the demographics, while Disney may rely on men and fanboys in seats, there has been a push to increase interest among women in Part 2. In unhindered awareness—meaning the demo that has already decided they will Wakanda forever without marketing influence — the sequel is in line with Black Panther and Spider-Man: No Way Home among teenage boys and men under 25. The Latino and Hispanic audience is very strong and leading the way Doctor Strange 2, thanks in part to new villain Namor being played by Narcos: Mexico star Tenoch Huerta Mejía.

Wakanda forever begins its overseas rollout on Wednesday, in such majors as France, Germany, Korea and Italy, and adds all international markets until Friday except Russia and China.

RELATED: ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Makes Historic Premiere in Nigeria

The $180M+ overseas debut is above recent comparable markets and at today’s exchange rates including Thor: Love and thunder ($163 million), Jurassic World Dominion ($152 million) and Batman ($114 million). It is also taller than the original Black Panther ($144 million). Another key comp is Doctor Strange 2, which bowed to $242 million in like-for-likes.

Wakanda forever certainly could go higher than $180 million, but there are a couple of factors here, including the very strong dollar, which is a hindrance to the international box office, while Korea, which was the third foreign market in the first film, is coming out of a mourning period after a national tragedy. Given that Wakanda forever is about grief and loss, the film can either work or be a bit premature. Hopefully, for the audience, it will be the former.

RELATED: ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Red Carpet World Premiere – Photo Gallery

The team has been making the rounds with a European premiere in London last week, followed by a historic event Sunday in Lagos, Nigeria — the first time a Marvel film has premiered in the country — and a launch in Mexico City. There have also been event screenings in such major cities as Paris and Berlin.

On the first one Black Panther, the top five international markets were China, the UK, Korea, Brazil and France. Whether Wakanda forever coming into China is still up in the air, but there hasn’t been a Marvel movie approved since then Avengers: Endgame in 2019 while overall the market has not played ball with Hollywood over the past year.

RELATED: ‘The Fabelmans’ trailer: Steven Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical film based on his family and childhood

Expect a robust pop on the specialty side with the Steven Spielberg-directed autobiography The Fabelman family finally opened up hot off a world premiere in Toronto in September, where the picture won the Oscar bellwether trophy, The People’s Choice Award. The Amblin-Universal Pictures title begins its platform in four theaters in New York and Los Angeles: NY’s Lincoln Square and Union Square and LA’s The Grove and Century City. The film starring Paul Dano, Michelle Williams, Seth Rogen, Judd Hirsch and Gabriel LaBelle opens next door on Wednesday, November 23. Rotten Tomatoes Critics love it 94% Fresh.